Why are GDS air bookings falling while agency sales grow?

Two numbers landed on the same desk this week. On November 5, Sabre reported 1 percent fewer air bookings in its third quarter. A day later, Amadeus reported 2.8 percent fewer air bookings over the first nine months of 2026. Meanwhile ARC says US agencies sold 18 percent more air in September than a year earlier. Here's how both can be true, and what it means for an agency's week.

What did Sabre and Amadeus report?

Both global distribution systems counted slightly fewer air bookings, while their earnings held up.

Sabre's hotel and other bookings rose 8 percent, so its total held flat. The company kept its 2026 guidance for low to mid single digit growth in air bookings. Amadeus earned 5 percent more per booking at constant currency. Its chief executive, Luis Maroto, said the company remains on track for its 2026 outlook, likely at the lower end of the range, because of the Middle East.

Why are agency air sales up so much?

Fares. ARC's September release shows passenger trips up 2 percent from a year earlier. The average ticket price rose 20 percent over the same months, with economy up 21 percent and premium up 14 percent.

The third quarter tells the same story. ARC counted 77.4 million trips, up 3.5 percent, while sales grew 18 percent. Steve Solomon, ARC's chief commercial officer, said demand remains strong despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressure.

Do the two sets of numbers measure the same thing?

They measure different things, which explains part of the gap. ARC counts US agency tickets that it settles, whichever channel issued them. Sabre and Amadeus count bookings made through their systems worldwide, by agencies and airlines in every region.

So a slowdown in Gulf traffic can weigh on a global GDS count while US agency trips keep growing. Read each number for what it covers before you quote it to a client or a lender.

Where does NDC fit in?

A growing share of agency tickets now arrives through airline NDC connections. ARC says NDC made up 21.2 percent of the transactions it settled in September, up 7 percent from a year earlier.

Some NDC bookings still pass through a GDS, and some come through an airline's own portal or an aggregator. Both settle through ARC. That's why your IAR week can grow while one GDS count dips. Our NDC guide covers what changes in ticketing.

What does this mean for an agency's week?

The work follows transactions. Every ticket, exchange, refund and void needs matching in IAR, whatever it cost. A 20 percent higher fare adds zero tickets, so sales growth overstates how much busier the team is.

Higher fares do raise the stakes on each one. A fare difference missed on an exchange, or a refund applied to the wrong form of payment, now carries a larger debit memo.

What should agency leaders watch next?

1. Count transactions each week. Pull the number of documents in each IAR report and track it beside sales. Staff to that count.
2. Know your NDC share. Compare your own share with ARC's 21.2 percent. A rising share means more tickets to reconcile from airline portals.
3. Check exchanges closely. While fares stay high, review the fare difference on each exchange before Tuesday's report. Check its waiver code too.
4. Brief clients plainly. Corporate clients will see higher spend in their reports. Show them trips beside spend, so the fare rise reads clearly.
5. Watch the October numbers. ARC usually publishes the prior month's sales in the third week of the month.

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